Burntfields Wildfire Risk Management
Building resilient communities.
What is wildfire crisis management?
Wildfires play a crucial role in various ecosystems by clearing dead underbrush and replenishing the soil’s nutrients. But the alarming increase in frequency, severity and geographical scope of these events have led to a wildfire crisis that is aggravated by climate change. It is projected that severe wildfires could increase globally, with estimated rises of 14 percent by 2030, 30 percent by 2050 and 50 percent by the end of the 21st century, according to a United Nations report.
Wildfires pose a serious threat to the safety and wellbeing of communities, ecosystems and economies. The impact spreads far beyond those directly involved with fire effluent — such as toxic gases, visible smoke and heat — potentially travelling hundreds of kilometres.
Governments, businesses, civil society and other organisations are faced with securing personal safety, protecting property and preparing for potential evacuations while navigating the unpredictable and destructive wildfires.
Wildfires aid ecosystems, but rising frequency and spread from climate change are driving a crisis; UN projects fires up 14% by 2030, 30% by 2050.
What are the factors contributing to the rise of wildfire incidents?
1. Wildland-urban interface (WUI) growth
The wildfire crisis is exacerbated by the rapid expansion of the WUI, where the human footprint, including homes, businesses, schools and infrastructure, encroaches upon wildland areas. It provides more ignition sources and flammable materials.
2. Climate change
Climate change intensifies the wildfire threat by subjecting WUI areas to longer periods of drought, elevated air temperatures and extreme weather events. These can result in more lightning strikes and stronger winds — ideal conditions for wildfires — accelerating the spread of fires and making WUI communities increasingly vulnerable.
3. Growing fuel conditions
The wildfire crisis is fuelled by worsening environmental conditions, driven in part by increasing droughts in many regions. Drier environments render trees and vegetation more susceptible to ignition and rapid burning. Property development within the WUI disrupts the natural fire cycle, often preventing the controlled clearing of undergrowth. As a result, ample fuel is readily available when a large wildfire ignites, making containment efforts even more challenging.
Impact of wildfires on communities, the economy and the environment
Wildfires are not just environmental disasters; they are complex crises that deeply impact communities, economies and the environment in interconnected ways.
Displacement
Displacement due to wildfires is a significant social and economic challenge. The destruction of homes and infrastructure forces people to evacuate and often results in the loss of property, personal belongings and sentimental items.
Displacement can lead to job loss, especially in industries closely tied to the affected areas, such as tourism, services, agriculture, forestry and any other industrial sectors affected by the extended reach of the wildfire. Displaced workers may struggle to find alternative employment opportunities, affecting both their livelihoods and the economy by stressing unemployment figures.
Impacts on soil and water
Intense heat can alter soil structure, making it more prone to erosion, landslides and mudslides, and compromising its ability to support vegetation.
Post-fire runoff can carry sediment, ash and chemicals into water bodies, contaminating them and disrupting aquatic ecosystems. This can affect both environmental health and the availability of clean water for human use.
Ecological losses
Wildfires can destroy habitats, consume vegetation and disrupt natural ecosystems. Many plant and animal species may struggle to recover or face local extinction. The loss of biodiversity can have cascading effects on ecosystem services, including pollination, soil fertility and pest control. This can impact agriculture and other human activities dependent on healthy ecosystems.
Human health impacts
The inhalation of wildfire smoke, which contains fine particulate matter and harmful gases, can lead to respiratory problems, exacerbate preexisting conditions and even cause premature death. Wildfires that contribute to global air pollution cause approximately 340,000 premature deaths worldwide. Prolonged exposure to poor air quality can also have mental health consequences, such as increased anxiety and stress, affecting the overall wellbeing of affected communities.
Loss of life
The most tragic consequence of destructive wildfires is the loss of human life. Additionally, wildfires often result in the loss of pets and livestock, causing emotional distress and economic hardship for individuals and communities that rely on these animals for companionship and livelihood.
Identifying risks and developing wildfire crisis management plans
With more than 48,000 route kilometres of train track, transporting people and resources throughout the country, Canada’s railway is vital to the economy and people’s way of life. Transport Canada’s Rail Safety (TC/RS) directorate wanted to evaluate the susceptibility of these rail assets to wildfires.
GHD aided in a wildfire risk assessment study in October 2022, factoring in climate change and the need to development an assessment methodology to quantify this risk moving forward. Our work generated two key deliverables:
- A general methodology for the risk assessment of wildfire events to stated regions of interest. This allows areas at risk to be identified using a risk modelling framework and a fire growth model. It also allows assets within these risk areas to be evaluated for potential impact from loss of asset services.
- The application of this methodology to the Kamloops region of interest.
- Pre-suppression preparedness
- Indigenous people engagement
- Enhanced prevention measures and coordination
We also helped develop and test an evacuation simulation tool of wildland-urban interface fire evacuation for the local community of Roxborough, Colorado, US, sponsored by the National Institute of Standards and Technology and developed in partnership with various institutions including the National Fire Protection Association. A portion of the community took part in driving to a designated refuge location at a designated time. We captured departure times, route use and arrival times.
This information was utilised to develop a benchmark dataset. The simulation tool was configured using the initial conditions (e.g. the number of people involved, the response times, the distribution across the routes available) and compared against overall performance (e.g. the arrival times at the refuge). This provided a simple validation case to assess the performance of the model, which was deemed positive and sensitive to the underlying factors determined to be of importance during the observation and from wider analysis.
Want to go deeper?
To hear how bold ideas are shaping the future of infrastructure and sustainability in the face of climate challenges like wildfires, tune in to episode 8 of Transform – Tomorrow’s thinking, today.
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