What is effective wildfire evacuation planning?

The effectiveness of an evacuation plan for a wildfire depends on numerous factors, such as:

• The severity and spread of fire conditions.
• The effectiveness of intervention measures like prior planning, firefighting activities and emergency resources.
• The population’s ability to respond, including the availability of private and public transport, and potential disruptions caused by other resource users or by background traffic.
• The impact of this response on the available traffic system and on the road network.

Synergy between government, organisations and communities is key for effective wildfire evacuation. Clear communication between these groups is important to foster a deep understanding of who handles which resource, how these will be utilised, and how the services and funding for evacuation would evolve to suit the needs of the community.

Governments should work together with organisations on planning, preparedness, innovation, agile resource deployment and logistics, with the former leading on resource coordination. Communities play a crucial role by providing local knowledge, resilience and the human element in evacuation efforts. This synergy is essential to navigate and address the multifaceted challenges of wildfires — especially as wildfire scenarios rapidly change and affect new locations.

While there are nuances to the roles of government, organisations and communities, these are the basics:

1. Australia

Australia, prone to bushfires, needed more advanced early warning systems to detect wildfires in their early stages. The bushfire crisis from June 2019 to February 2020, one of the worst wildfire disasters in modern history, killed or displaced nearly three billion animals. In response, it prioritised technological innovations for early warnings. Its key success factors included:

• Satellite and drone technology: Australia harnessed satellite and drone technology to monitor remote areas for potential ignition sources. Drones equipped with infrared cameras and AI algorithms can detect fire before it becomes visible.
  
• Crowdsource data: The government partnered with tech companies to create apps that allow citizens to report smoke and fire sightings, providing real-time data that complements official monitoring efforts. For example, users can help track bushfire growth by contributing to interactive maps hosted on the Department of Communities and Social Inclusion website.
• Predictive analytics: By leveraging data analytics and machine learning, Australia can predict fire behaviour more accurately, helping authorities make informed decisions regarding evacuations and resource allocation.

Australia’s industry-led approach to technological innovation has enabled faster response times and more targeted evacuation orders. This collaborative effort has become a model for other wildfire-prone regions worldwide.

2. California, United States

California, known for its wildfire-prone landscape, faces the perpetual challenge of evacuation in densely populated areas. Moreover, since 2023, California wildfires have emitted 127 million tonnes of greenhouse gases. In response to the escalating wildfire crisis, the state has promoted the power of collaborative evacuation planning in high-risk regions. It initiated a comprehensive approach by bringing together multiple agencies, local law enforcement, emergency management and transportation authorities. Key factors to its success included:

• A unified command structure: California adopted a unified command structure, streamlining decision-making during wildfires. This structure ensures coordinated response efforts and standardised evacuation protocols across jurisdictions.
• Advanced communications systems: The state invested in advanced communications systems to rapidly disseminate evacuation orders and critical information to residents.
• Community engagement: California actively engages with communities through educational campaigns and evacuation drills, empowering residents to understand their roles in the evacuation process, fostering a culture of preparedness.

This collaborative approach has improved the efficiency and effectiveness of the wildfire evacuations in California. By working together and leveraging advanced technology and community engagement, the state has made significant strides in protecting its residents and assets from the wildfire threat.

GHD is part of a global research consortium developing the WUI-NITY model, a GIS-based tool built on the Unity 3D game engine. It simulates and visualises wildfire spread and human and traffic behaviour during evacuation of communities in wildland urban interface (WUI) areas. We collaborate with academic and government partners to continually develop this platform.

WUI-NITY quantifies community evacuation performance and provides data for projections, which ultimately support the development of robust plans to save lives. It has a built-in wildfire model, but its evacuation model can be run without simulating wildfire spread to conduct rapid assessment of plans, quantify evacuation time and vulnerability of different communities, and demonstrate the impact of community design or plan changes.

Its open-source nature intends to equip local decision makers with the tools to help them develop robust evacuation plans, whilst involving the relevant stakeholders, including first responders and residents.

Preventing or mitigating wildfire impacts requires a holistic approach that includes prevention, preparedness and effective response strategies, as well as policies aimed at reducing the risk and promoting resilience in wildfire-prone areas.

The following are recommendations based on Burntfields®, our wildfire risk suite of services: